Chile & the two women who may become its next president

Michelle Bachelet	Candidate	Evelyn Matthei
Executive Director of UN Women	Current Position	Minister of Labor
President of Chile	Notable Previous Position	Senator
Chilean Social Democrat (candidate of New Majority coalition)	Political Party	Independent Democratic Union (candidate of the Alianza coalition)
61	Age	59
Gen. Alberto Bachelet Martínez	Father	Gen. Fernando Matthei Aubel
Worked for Allende’s Food Distribution Program; imprisoned by Pinochet regime; died in prison	Father’s Political History	Health Minister under Pinochet; Member of Military Junta prior to Chile’s return to democracy
Major economic policy is to increase taxes and eliminate tuition to combat inequality	Economic Policies	Continue the economic policies of Piñera which have kept inflation and unemployment low while steadily raising GDP
~20,000	Twitter Followers (as of July 24)	~15,000

 Following presidential candidate Pablo Longueira's withdrawal from the presidential race and subsequent internal strife, the Alianza coaltion of the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and the National Renewal (RN)  decided to name Minister of Labor Eveyln Matthei their presidential candidate.  Ms. Matthei will face off against Michelle Bachelet in what will be the first Chilean presidential race between two women.  

However, the odds will be stacked up against Ms. Matthei.  Ms. Bachelet served as president beginning in 2006 and finishing her term in 2010 with a nearly 85% approval rating; the Chilean Constitution forbids consecutive terms.  Prior to Mr. Longueira's withdrawal, one poll claimed Ms. Bachelet had 39% of the vote while Mr. Longueira was second with 25%.  The remaining percentage was divided among other candidates.  

Ms. Matthei's campaign will certainly attack Ms. Bachelet's slow response to the 2010 Chilean earthquake during her first term. In addition, Ms. Matthei is a fervent supporter of President Piñera's economic policies which have kept inflation low and recorded a 5% growth in GDP in 2012.  

Unfortunately, student protests against the Piñera administration for maintaining the privatization of many universities will likely be a boon for Ms. Bachelet.  In fact, Ms. Bachelet has come out in support of raising taxes to make college tuition free for Chilean citizens.  This is one of the many policies on the Bachelet platform to combat the growing inequality under the Piñera administration.

In addition, the fathers of both Ms. Bachelet and Ms. Matthei became high-ranking officials of the Chilean army, who become good friends when they were stationed at the same base.  General  Alberto Bachelet was a fervent supporter of Salvador Allende.  Following the coup of 1973, the Pinochet government, for which General Fernando Matthei served as Health Minister, called for Gen. Bachelet's exile.  He refused and was imprisoned where he would die not long after.  Gen. Matthei would remain as part of the military junta until democracy was restored in 1990.  

Michelle Bachelet and her mother were detained following the coup and were subject to torture.  Eventually they gained asylum in Australia.  Ms. Bachelet spent much of her exile in East Germany studying medicine before finally returning to Chile in 1979 and finishing her degree.  During this time Ms. Matthei became a renowned economist within Chilean academia before moving to the government.

 Ultimately, it will be difficult for Ms. Matthei to make a lot of ground on the popular Bachelet.  Social inequality has become a major issue this election cycle which should buoy Ms. Bachelet to a comfortable victory.  In addition, Matthei will find it difficult to earn the trust of the right-wing National Renewal party, who considered running Andrés Allamand runner-up in the recent primary.  The only question may be whether Ms. Bachelet can avoid a December runoff with Ms. Matthei by earning over 50% in the November election.

Z-40's Arrest and a Region Bracing for Bloodshed

Eight days ago Mexican Marines captured Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, the notorious leader known as “Z-40” of the Zetas drug cartel, in a raid near the US-Mexican border without a shot fired.  This marks the first major cartel leader captured or killed since the inauguration of President Enrique Peña Nieto eight months ago. While a casualty-free raid is certainly good news for an administration hell-bent on a reversing the violence-dependent drug policy of the preceding Calderón adminstration , the prospect of a less-violent Mexico is certainly in doubt at least in the coming months.   The Nuevo Laredo drug corridor, the major route of narcotics into the United States, is likely to see an increase in violence.

Violence is likely to escalate in the region between the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas for control of the Nuevo Laredo corridor; in addition, Los Zetas will be looking to remove the threats that led to Z-40's arrest .  Los  Zetas, made up of mostly ex-military specialists, split from the Gulf Cartel in the 1990s.  The Gulf Cartel may seek to reclaim the prosperous Nuevo Laredo corridor, which was lost with Trevino Morales’s defection.  Trevino Morales’s surprising rise to power, as a civilian in a group of ex-militaries, was probably compensated by his brutal tendencies, which included the massacre of scores of Central American immigrants on at least two occasions.  Los Zetas, led by Z-40's brother Omar Trevino Morales, may seek to make a statement by attacking journalists, police officers, or anyone else they learn was involved in the capture of Z-40.

Of great concern to the Peña Nieto administration is the fact Mexican Marines found $2 million in cash during Z-40’s arrest.  Why is this significant?  The Mexican government’s reward for information leading to Z-40’s arrest was $2 million.  This highlights a major problem for policy makers seeking to defeat the drug cartels.  High profile drug leaders such as Z-40 can pay off security personnel with an ease that the federal government cannot.    

As reported by the Associated Press, citizens of Nuevo Laredo, Z-40’s hometown, are waiting for the bloodshed to begin.  The presence of highly armed convoys has done little to quell fears. After all this is a town where 9 bodies swung from an overpass last year and the appearance of severed heads are far removed from fiction.  Revenge and profit knows no expiration date, and this pseudo-occupation cannot adhere to the same calendar.