Eight days ago Mexican Marines captured Miguel Angel Trevino
Morales, the notorious leader known as “Z-40” of the Zetas drug cartel, in a
raid near the US-Mexican border without a shot fired. This marks the first major cartel leader
captured or killed since the inauguration of President Enrique Peña Nieto eight
months ago. While a casualty-free raid is certainly good news for an
administration hell-bent on a reversing the violence-dependent drug policy of the
preceding Calderón adminstration , the prospect of a less-violent Mexico is
certainly in doubt at least in the coming months. The Nuevo Laredo drug corridor, the
major route of narcotics into the United States, is likely to see an increase in violence.
Violence is likely to escalate in the region between the
Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas for control of the Nuevo Laredo corridor; in addition, Los Zetas will be looking to remove the threats that led to Z-40's arrest . Los Zetas, made up of mostly ex-military specialists,
split from the Gulf Cartel in the 1990s.
The Gulf Cartel may seek to reclaim the
prosperous Nuevo Laredo corridor, which was lost with Trevino Morales’s defection. Trevino Morales’s surprising rise to power, as a civilian in a group of ex-militaries, was probably
compensated by his brutal tendencies, which included the massacre of scores of
Central American immigrants on at least two occasions. Los Zetas, led by Z-40's brother Omar Trevino Morales, may seek to make a
statement by attacking journalists, police officers, or anyone else they learn
was involved in the capture of Z-40.
Of great concern to the Peña Nieto administration is the fact Mexican Marines found $2 million in cash during Z-40’s
arrest. Why is this significant?
The Mexican government’s reward for information leading to Z-40’s arrest
was $2 million. This highlights a major
problem for policy makers seeking to defeat the drug cartels. High profile drug leaders such as Z-40 can pay
off security personnel with an ease that the federal government cannot.
As reported by the Associated Press, citizens of Nuevo
Laredo, Z-40’s hometown, are waiting for the bloodshed to begin. The presence of highly armed convoys has done
little to quell fears. After all this is a town where 9 bodies swung from an
overpass last year and the appearance of severed heads are far removed from
fiction. Revenge and profit knows no expiration
date, and this pseudo-occupation cannot adhere to the same calendar.
